This weekend, we have a 13-fight card at Florida. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to acquire a great deal of cash from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first location cost and $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that qualify. I will attempt to receive my 2nd chair this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw 50-100 entries at that $25k decoration, and then I will likely take a couple shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a fantastic amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let us get into a few plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Roosevelt Roberts — $9,500
I expect Roberts to be the much better fighter anywhere this battle goes. I think Gifford’s best shot at a win would be locking a guillotine. Aside from that, I believe we’ve got a pretty safe win here using Roberts and that’s what I am searching for. I want the safer wins in cash and that I will be concerned about who is going to score the greatest in GPPs. I believe we could get away from him in the GPPs in his price because when he puts up 90 DK points in a win then that won’t win 25k. It helps us win in cash games though and I’d be surprised if he had a low scoring win . I believe he is good for 80-100 points here and I am totally okay with that in my money lineup.
GPP play of this week — Greg Hardy- $9,300
Hardy is the GPP drama of this week and he has the highest ITD odds on the card in -222. This is a set up fight for him to get a knockout and I think this is most likely going to take place in the very first round. That should put Hardy over 100 points and I am considering that. Hardy will be one of my top plays of the week, but he is GPP only for me. We can not trust him sufficient for cash games, so that’s why I enjoy Roberts more in that format. I really do think Hardy can outscore Roberts though if they win, and he’s $200 cheaper. That may knock Roberts off the very best lineup and even with high ownership we could win that $25k with Hardy in our lineup so long as he receives the first KO. Hardy wins in round 1 is lined at -130 and that’s too good for me to pass in GPPs.
Underdog drama of this week — Glover Teixeira — $7,900
Teixeira is no more the underdog on the betting line (-120) but DraftKings salaries don’t change once they are released. We get Teixeira here for 400 less costly than Cutelaba and he is favored to get the win. I also think he can win in the 1st round with a submission and score over 90 points. That would provide him a good shot at being on the perfect lineup. I will be targeting both sides of this struggle in GPPs because I do not expect it to move all 3 rounds, but value on Teixeira is exactly what I like the most and we have to own”underdogs” within our DK lineups together with the $50k salary cap. I think that the obvious path to victory for Glover is to the floor and that is what I expect his game plan to be. I enjoy him to find a entry win if he is able to land takedowns and he will be among my highest possessed underdogs this week.
Fade of the week — Carla Esparza ($8,200)
I know folks were expecting me to place Angela Hill as my fade at $9.4k. She is a solid fade too… But I am going with Esparza as my fade this week and that I will have zero lineups such as her. Generally, Esparza is a decent wrestler and we like wrestlers in DraftKings. I simply don’t see wrestling in her very best interest against Jandiroba and I believe she uses her wrestling at defense to attempt and keep this fight on the toes. Each of the danger is on the ground in this matchup and Carla gets the boxing of the two. I think she could win a 30-27 striking decision but that won’t score highly, and I would guess it puts up about ~60 DK points. That is not going to cut it at $8.2k so that I simply don’t see how she ends up on the 25k lineup this week if she does win, and that is why she is my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I’m 69-44 to get +224.83u (+$22,483) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)